2010 NFL Draft: Are the San Franisco 49ers Targeting Jimmy Clausen? 

The San Francisco 49ers have been looking for a legit starting quarterback since releasing Jeff Garcia after the 2003 season.

Since then, the 49ers have started Tim Rattay, Ken Dorsey, Alex Smith, Shaun Hill, Cody Pickett, Trent Dilfer, J.T. O’Sullivan, and Chris Weinke. Of those names, the only player still on the team’s roster is the 2005 draft’s number one pick, Alex Smith.

Smith is still on the team only because he regained his starting position after almost leading the 49ers to a come from behind victory in week 7. He finished the season 5-5 as the starter, including back-to-back wins to end the season.

So the question is, can Alex Smith be a successful quarterback and lead the 49ers back to prominence? If the team doesn’t think so and if Notre Dame’s Jimmy Clausen is available at picks 13 or 17, should the 49ers draft him to be their quarterback of the future?

First let’s take a look at some numbers. Here are the junior year stats of the two quarterbacks in question, plus a third for comparison:

	TDs-INT	Passing Yards	Completion %	YPA	Sacks	Team Record*
Quarterback A	28-4	3722	68.0	8.76	24	16-18
Quarterback B	32-4	2952	67.5	9.31	18	21-1
Quarterback C	24-8	2566	66.1	8.1	25	17-5

*Overall team record when starting quarterback

So how do they rank purely on the numbers? I’d personally draft Quarterback B first, Quarterback A second, and Quarterback C last.

Now let’s put names to the statistics:

	TDs-INT	Passing Yards	Completion %	YPA	Sacks	Team Record*
Jimmy Clausen	28-4	3722	68.0	8.76	24	16-18
Alex Smith	32-4	2952	67.5	9.31	18	21-1
Aaron Rodgers	24-8	2566	66.1	8.1	25	17-5

Did you also choose to draft Alex Smith when originally seeing the stats? The 49ers saw a winner who had some pretty gaudy stats, so he seemed like a solid number 1 overall pick, but he hasn’t lived up to the hype.

I threw in the third quarterback to show how NFL scouting is flawed. Aaron Rodgers, drafted 24th by the Green Bay Packers, so far has been the better NFL player than Alex Smith.

What is the biggest difference in their success? Rodgers was able to sit for a few seasons behind Brett Favre, where as Smith was forced to play from day one. It takes many quarterbacks a season or two to adjust to the speed of the NFL, and Rodgers was afforded that.

But back to the original question: Should the 49ers draft Jimmy Clausen?

Personally, I think the 49ers have to bypass Clausen at picks 13 and 17.

His passing statistics are closer to those of Alex Smith, and though his win-loss record isn’t as impressive as those two, his teams weren’t as talented. My feeling is if the 49ers are going to possibly draft the second coming of Smith, wouldn’t it be better to stick with the original?

On paper, the 49ers look like the best team in a very winnable NFC West.

They have some glaring needs on the offensive line, in the defensive backfield, and are in need of a pass rusher opposite Manny Lawson.

The 49ers need to draft two immediate starters with their picks, and cannot afford to choose a player who might not see the field in 2010. The team is in a win-now mode and needs to draft accordingly.

Furthermore, drafting Jimmy Clausen sends a message to Alex Smith that he isn’t the player they hoped he was. If he has a bad game there will certainly be calls for Clausen to become the starter (no one wants to see David Carr under center), and could create an unnecessary distraction within the locker room.

But if the 49ers feel that Smith isn’t the future, they could attempt to move back into the first round if Clausen is still available. The problem is that it will cost them at least their second round pick and possibly next year’s first, and I don’t believe Clausen is worth the price.

If Smith fails as the starter, then the 49ers could turn to Nate Davis, their 2009 fifth-round pick from Ball State, and see what he can do.

We’ve seen many later round picks become successful starters in the NFL, and Davis could possibly be the next. If Davis isn’t, then 2011 is when a first-round quarterback should be chosen.

Though Clausen has been groomed to be an NFL quarterback since he was a kid, it shouldn’t be as a 49er.

Not if they actually plan to win in 2010.

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