Is Donald Brown Worth Drafting?
I think it’s safe to say that “as Andrew Luck goes, so do the Indianapolis Colts.” Now, if you want to get more specific, just substitute running back Donald Brown for “Indianapolis Colts” in the previous statement. With that being said, let’s use what we know and see how we can value Donald Brown for the 2012 fantasy football season.
Rebuilding is the new team motto in Indy. Andrew Luck has been touted as the best can’t miss quarterback prospect since John Elway. That could very well be true when we look back ten years from now, but we can’t bet on it now. The Colts are still many pieces away from contending and you cannot just roll over college success to the NFL. Go ahead and throw out the names of Andy Dalton and Christian Ponder. Yes, they were rookie passers who had solid flashes right away, but they also had some pieces to work with.
Donald Brown is not Adrian Peterson or even Cedric Benson. He has ability and an upside, but he’s far from proven. He showed some explosiveness at the end of last year, but not enough to make me highly interested. Isn’t it safe to think that NFL defenses will key on the run and take advantage of confusing Andrew Luck with different schemes and blitz packages; making him apt to throw the ball more and force him into making bad decisions. Donald Brown will probably suffer statistically because of this.
Also, the schedule for the Colts doesn’t give me a lot to hope for. The AFC South is pretty tough, especially in terms of defenses, of which Indy will have to face each twice. Now, couple that with games against the Packers, Jets, Patriots and Bears and you can see Donald Brown’s productivity being projected pretty low. The only games I give Brown a realistic chance of putting up any respectable points are: week 2 (Minnesota), week 7 (Cleveland), week 9 (Miami) and week 16 (@ Kansas City).
Facts are facts and the conclusion that I come to is that Donald Brown has limited value. I would be hard pressed to tie up a roster spot with him due to his limited weekly value. Even in his best matchups I can only see a projected total point value of maybe 10-15. He’s more of a desperation play on a weekly basis, making him a risky draft option heading into 2012.
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