Analyzing Eli Manning’s 2012 Fantasy Value
As a die-hard New York Giants fan, I love Eli Manning. How can I complain? He comes up big when it counts. I do, however, draw a very fine line and take a different approach when it comes to considering him a part of my fantasy team. In drafts past, I’ve stared at his name on my cheat sheet and for some reason just couldn’t bring myself to draft him. The reason why is because he scares me; to a degree.
Last season was a very good year for Eli Manning. Threw just south of 5,000 yards with 29 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. He has Hakeem Nicks (considered a WR1) and the breakout Victor Cruz (also considered a WR1). He lost Mario Manningham but has Ramses Barden, Jerrel Jernigan and rookie Rueben Randle fighting for a wideout spot when Cruz is in the slot. So it’s safe to say Eli has some top tier weapons at his disposal and he does use them effectively.
If you go game by game last year, Eli coupled some great games with some real mind-benders. Look at his fantasy numbers and stats from each game last season and you’ll scratch your head. He is very inconsistent! This is my biggest fear of having Eli Manning as my QB1. When I draft a QB I want a guy that gets put in that slot and stays there every week, no matter what. I hate playing mind games with myself and second guessing whether to start him each week. That’s what Eli does to me.
It’s also important to understand and break down his stats a little further. First off, 16 INT’s is normal for Eli Manning. It’s a middle of the road number but you’d like to see that number be a little lower with a QB1. In terms of his passing yards, look at how Eli was able to get as close to 5,000 passing yards as he did. He is bombing the ball down the field to Nicks and Cruz and they are making spectacular catches. He also had some 5-10 yard passes that went for big scores. Remember Cruz’s 5 yard out from their own end zone that went for a TD score last year against the Jets? It’s plays like these that make me scared. A QB1 can’t be that dependent on big plays like those and neither can you in terms of fantasy points.
Don’t get me wrong. Eli is a good quarterback. If you draft him you’re going to get fantasy points out of him. But remember, his value is going to change dramatically week to week. If you can manage swapping two QB’s on a weekly basis then Eli might work out for you. I don’t like guessing whether Eli gets 26 or 11 fantasy points every week.
Eli is being fantasy ranked for QB’s an average of 6-10. I think his value is more in the 10-15 range for QB ranks. I just feel there’s some more consistent guys to rely on. After reading all this, if you still feel confident in Eli Manning this year, I dare you to look at the Giants schedule; it’s a DOOZY!
2012 Fantasy Outlooks for other Quarterbacks:
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