Fantasy Football ADP Analysis: 6/21/2012
I made my fantasy football Average Draft Position report for the 2012 season a month ago, so I feel it’s only right to re-approach things before June is up.
A lot is still the same after a month, but that doesn’t mean everything is always how it should be. Here’s what I found after perusing the ADP lists over at Fantasy Football Calculator again:
Michael Vick (Philadelphia Eagles)
He’s still going no early than round four on average, and in a lot of mocks he’s falling to round five. I get that the dude is brittle, but he still made an appearance in 13 games last year and was drafted in the first round of nearly every draft in 2011. That counts for something, and so does his awesome cast of surrounding weapons and his own elite talent.
If Vick somehow stays healthy, he’s carrying major value as a fourth or fifth round pick. If you’re getting him as your starter, you could potentially be getting a first-round talent on the cheap. And, hey, if you don’t trust him, you can always go get…
Robert Griffin III (Washington Redskins)
…who can be had in most mocks in about round eight. The only time I have personally seen him go earlier is when I’m taking him at the tail end of round seven because I’m worried he won’t get back to me at the end of round eight when I pick again. I’m super high on him, and think he holds excellent value that late.
Josh Freeman (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Freeman was awesome in 2010 and went way down last year, but with Vincent Jackson added to the passing game, I think he bounces back in a big way. You’re not taking much of a chance for a potentially solid reward, as you can get him in round 11 with ease, and he’ll go undrafted in countless other leagues.
Jake Locker (Tennessee Titans), Kevin Kolb (Arizona Cardinals) and Tim Tebow (New York Jets)
On average, all three of these guys are going undrafted in standard leagues, and I think all three have a real shot at fantasy success this year. They all face challenges to get there, but they’re all worth a flier (arguably), and you can grab them in round 14 or 15 in most drafts.
Trent Richardson (Cleveland Browns)
I won’t strongly argue against Richardson lasting until the beginning of round two, but consider that he’s in for a sure gigantic role as the lead rusher in Cleveland, while injury risks like Darren McFadden and Ryan Mathews are being drafted well ahead of him. Maurice Jones-Drew is also going ahead of him, and I find myself trusting Richardson a bit more due to fresh legs and an offense that revolves around him.
I’m not saying you should take T-Rich number five overall (at all), but I do think you’re getting a heck of a value pick with him in the early second round.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis (Cincinnati Bengals)
I know the Bengals are engaged in a RBBC with The Law Firm and Bernard Scott, but I value BJGE way more than Scott. He’s not explosive, but he did rush for 24 touchdowns over the past few years and you can’t just forget that. He’s still the starter in Cincy and he’ll dominate goal-line work without a doubt.
James Starks (Green Bay Packers)
Starks doesn’t seem like a workhorse by trade or when you look at his offense. Maybe true, but he’s still the starting running back in Green Bay, and there’s nothing even close to serious competition behind him. He’s in for all the early work with Ryan Grant gone, and I think he’ll see some third down work, too. He holds fairly solid RB2 value and is being flat-out under valued as a sixth-rounder in most drafts.
Ryan Williams (Arizona Cardinals)
Williams and starter Beanie Wells are both working themselves back from injuries, but at this point neither back is healthy so the starting job could actually be up for grabs before the season starts. If that’s even close to the case, I’d rather take a risk on Williams in round nine than Wells in round six.
Daniel Thomas (Miami Dolphins)
There have been whispers of Reggie Bush moving back to more of a “hybrid” role in Miami’s new offense, which could give Thomas early down work and possibly goal-line duty, as well. His rookie year was unspectacular, but he has the build and talent to be a feature back if a solid role is given to him. Considering he’s available until round 10 in most drafts, he’s certainly worth the risk.
Reggie Wayne (Indianapolis Colts)
The Colts are bad, right? And their defense is making a transition, right? If you answered yes to both questions, then you can agree that Andrew Luck will likely be throwing quite a bit in his first year, as he tries to keep the Colts in games. That means passes will be floating out to Wayne and others at a decent rate, and being that he’s still the number one receiver in Indy on paper, he’s being pretty under valued currently.
Wayne still put up solid WR3 numbers in 2011 despite catching ducks from the likes of Curtis Painter and Kerry Collins, so I like his chances to be a reliable WR2 when all is said and done with Luck providing a considerable talent upgrade this year. On a side note, I’m also secretly high on Austin Collie (although I’m waiting until very late in drafts).
Michael Floyd (Arizona Cardinals)
Am I the only one who thinks this kid is going to blow up as a rookie? It certainly seems that way. I understand the quarterback position is undecided and receivers don’t normally go off in their first year, but I actually have a good feeling about Kevin Kolb this time around, and Floyd is just way too talented to delve in mediocrity across from Larry Fitzgerald all season. You can get Floyd around the 11th round, but I find myself grabbing him a round or two earlier at times, depending on how crazy owners are about their receivers.
Chad Ochocinco (Miami Dolphins)
Ochocinco went from scrub to golden child last year when he joined the Patriots, as many put him inside their top 30 (myself included, unfortunately), as the pairing with Tom Brady suggested fantasy heaven. That didn’t work out as planned, but I think we’ve seen something turn in Ochocinco/Johnson, and he’s out to prove he’s not quite done just yet. He’s going in the 14th round or undrafted, and that’s exactly where you should pluck him. Rolling with the revenge/proving people wrong factor sometimes pays off and there is very little risk.
Antonio Gates (San Diego Chargers)
Gates is my third ranked tight end, and I don’t see that changing unless he gets hurt before the season. He’s the next guy off the board after Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham in most mocks, and it’s three rounds later in round five. Considering I think these three guys have a good chance of posting similar numbers this year if all goes right in the world, that’s a tremendous value for Gates.
Think about it – the guy is finally healthy, and assuming he stays that way, he should be Philip Rivers’ top go-to target now that Vincent Jackson is gone. He could have a huge year.
In that same breath, if you feel Jermichael Finley, Aaron Hernandez, Jason Witten or Vernon Davis can rival The Gronk or Graham, then wait until rounds five and six and pluck them, rather than spend a 1st or 2nd rounder on the latter.
Tony Gonzalez (Atlanta Falcons)
Gonzo is going in the 10th round in mocks, and almost exactly so in every mock I have been a part of. The funny thing is, he’s coming off of his best season as a Falcon, and he actually was a top-10 tight end in 2011. That doesn’t mean he will be repeating that production this year, but judging by his history, it won’t be that far off. Any way you look at it, you’re getting a respectable tight end in round 10, with the potential for a top-10 finish. I’ll take that.
Kyle Randolph (Minnesota Vikings), Luke Stocker (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) and Rob Housler (Arizona Cardinals)
I am a Kyle Rudolph fan, and think he could easily blow up this year. Don’t let the addition of John Carlson fool you. Rudolph is bigger, stronger, and more talented. He’s at the very minimum a dangerous red-zone threat, while he already proved in spurts last year as a rookie that he has the talent to make tough catches and the toughness to go over the middle.
Stocker and Housler are tougher to value, but Stocker will be starting and Housler’s size and speed (and Todd Heap’s sketchy injury history) could have him starting by mid-season. Rudolph is a guy I think is ready to own, while Stocker and Housler need to be watched.
All three are going undrafted in the majority of mocks, but all are serious sleepers at the tight end position heading into 2010.
San Francisco 49ers
I don’t see much changing for them, defensively, barring some unfortunate injuries. They’re still going to be brutal against the run and their ball control offense will assist them greatly. They’re going in round eight, which is where you can expect them to be taken in almost every draft. If you’re super high on them, you’ll want to reach in round seven, although I’d prefer to just follow suit and take the best available defense on the board.
Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions
Everyone else is thinking Steelers, Jets, Giants, etc, but you can wait until round 14 and land the Lions or Bills – two defenses that could be very much on the rise. Detroit already showed it’s worth at times in 2011, but they should be even nastier in 2012, while the Bills beefed up their secondary in the draft and added some serious pass-rushing talent in Mario Williams, while Mark Anderson wasn’t a bad addition, either. If Shawne Merriamn can actually stay healthy, this defense could get scary.
Sebastian Janikowski (Oakland Raiders)
Kickers drive me nuts, to be sure, but what drivers me even crazier is fantasy owners that draft one before the final round. Even crazier? That Janikowski is going in round 12 when people could be securing a wide receiver or running back gem. He has value, but so do the other top 15-16 kickers in the league.
The fact is, the biggest thing with kickers (depending on leagues, of course) is ultimately POINTS. I don’t care if Mason Crosby misses 10 field goals and only attempts 25, as long as the Packers get him 50-60 extra point attempts.
Ultimately, it’s impossible to predict year to year which kicker will lead the league in points, field goals made or attempted, or 50+ yarders. Just wait until round 15 and draft a reliable kicker who operates in an offense that moves the ball well. Whether it’s Matt Bryant, Stephen Gostowski, Jason Hanson, Alex Henery or Robbie Gould, you won’t be disappointed.