NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 15
After a not so good week 14 in our NFL Picks Against the Spread (2-4 overall), I’ll be looking to get back to my winning ways in week 15. Last week I felt very confident in my picks on Sunday, well that didn’t work out. Baltimore blew a late lead and ended up losing in OT by three, they were getting 2 1/2 points. Buffalo also couldn’t hold a late lead and lost by three, they were favored by 3. I had Indianapolis -5, they only won by 4 points. The Cardinals lost by 58, I was not even close in that game, ugh.
There’s a lot of tight games this week with 6 teams playing against each other with winning records, three of those games will be previewed below.
Here are my Top 5 Week 15 NFL Picks Against the Spread, lines via betus.com.pa with additional information coming from bangthebook.com, home teams in ALL CAPS:
ATLANTA -1 1/2 over New York Giants
Matt Ryan is 32-4 at home over his entire career, and with such a tight spread that stat actually means something this week. After a disappointing loss last week on the road at Carolina, a game in which meant nothing to them considering they just came off a huge win against the Saints the week before, the Falcons are sure to be up for this game. They got embarrassed last season in the playoffs against the Giants 24-2, so this game means something to them.
New York has gained a reputation of being a better team on the road than at home, as they’ve gone 8-3 straight-up on the road in their last 11 games. The Giants however will be without three key players, Ahmad Bradshaw, Prince Amukamara, and Kenny Phillips.
I like Atlanta to win by a comfortable margin, 27-17.
Tampa Bay +3 1/2 over NEW ORLEANS
New Orleans has nothing to play for after being blown out last week against the Giants, and their playoff hopes being dashed at the same time. There’s no doubt Drew Brees will give it his all, but you can’t say that about the rest of the team. Their defense is still awful, something that the Buccaneers offense can take advantage of this week.
The Saints are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay.
Look for a high scoring game in which the Bucs win, 38-31.
BALTIMORE +3 over Denver
How is a team that is 9-4 this season a three point underdog on the road? I think I can answer that. Denver has become a very heavy public team because of Peyton Manning. Manning has been tremendous this season, but there’s no way that the Broncos should be favored by three points on the road against a conference foe that is as good as the Ravens. 74% of the bets being placed on this game from public money is being placed on the Broncos, and it’s been that way for the past six games.
The Ravens are 16-1 in their last 17 games at home, and they’re getting three points. I’ll take the Ravens, 31-28.
ARIZONA +6 1/2 over Detroit
I know it might be hard to take a team that just lost 58-0 the week before, but no team is as bad as their worst effort, nor is a team as good as their best game.
Detroit has lost five straight games and has nothing to play for. I can’t see them getting for a non primetime game on the road on a normal Sunday afternoon.
I think the Lions win, but the Cards will cover, 24-20.
Pittsburgh -1 1/2 over DALLAS
I would of liked to get the spread on this game earlier in the week when Dallas was actually favored by 1 point, but I still think the Steelers have the value in this game. Pittsburgh is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games played after coming off of a loss. Big Ben is one more week removed from his injury and I expect him to have a huge game.
Dallas is 5-17 ATS over the last 22 games at home, not the kind of number you’d think a home team would possess.
Give me the Steelers, 30-22.