NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 7
Welcome back to our weekly column where we take a look at every game being played on Sunday in the NFL and make our picks against the spread. We caught a break on Thursday night football when head coach of the San Francisco 49ers Jim Harbaugh declined a safety that would have made the final score 15-6, I had the Seahawks +9. Thank you Jim Harbaugh. After that win my record on the season is 52-38-2.
Now let’s talk a little about week 7 in the NFL betting world. One of the many systems I look at when making picks is which team is the public’s money is being placed on. I like to be a contrarian when it comes to NFL betting most of the time, especially when a large amount of the public money is coming in on one side. If the public is at 80% or higher on one team, I will usually bet the other way, and it works out about 60% of the time, which is a five percent higher than the pro’s hit consistently. There is only one game that falls under that category this week however.
Let’s take a look at who I like this week in our NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 7. Lines via betus.com.pa with additional information coming from bangthebook.com, home teams in ALL CAPS:
Tennessee +3 over BUFFALO
It’s been all about the underdogs this year, so it’s only fitting that my first play of the day is on an underdog. Just last week underdogs covered 12 of 14 games, and they’re already off to a good start this week with Seattle covering on Thursday.
Buffalo couldn’t stop the LSU offense if they wanted to, okay maybe they could, but they still stink. I’ll take the Titans to cover and win, 30-27.
Arizona +7 over Minnesota
Another underdog here. Listen Arizona plays great defense as well as special teams, seven points is just to many points to lay, in what I consider two evenly matched teams.
John Skelton looked really bad last week in taking over for Kevin Kolb (ribs), but I’m not to worried about that. I think the Vikings win the game, 20-16, but give me the points.
INDIANAPOLIS -2 over Cleveland
The Colts got embarrassed last week against the Jets on the road, while the Browns got their first win on the season in upset fashion versus the Bengals.
Trent Richardson (ribs) is questionable after leaving last weeks game in the third quarter, even with the questionable tag, Richardson is expect to play. Indianapolis can be run on, so I look for a good game from him, but I think Andrew Luck will torch the Browns secondary.
Colts take this one, 27-13.
HOUSTON -7 over Baltimore
I look for a huge bounce back game from the Texans this week after getting shellacked last Sunday night at the hands of the Packers.
We all know about the key losses to the Baltimore defense last week, so look for the offense to try and pick up the slack on Sunday.
I don’t trust Joe Flacco, especially against a very hungry Texans defense. I’ll roll with the home team, 27-17.
ST. LOUIS +5 over Green Bay
This is the game I was talking about in the opening about the public being all over the Packers. Currently 81% of money coming in on the game, on the spread is in favor of Green Bay. It’s a typical overreaction from the public after a big win on primetime television.
The Rams +5 is my second strongest play of the weekend. I think the Packers win, but it’s going to be close, 26-24.
Dallas -2 over CAROLINA
Bad clock management last week might have cost the Cowboys a chance at an upset over the Baltimore Ravens. Some of the blame goes to Tony Romo, but most of the blame should be on head coach Jason Garrett.
Dallas is 8-1 against the spread over their past nine games against the Panthers. This goes against one of my betting systems, home teams that are underdogs, that are coming off of a bye, but I feel pretty confident that the Cowboys will rebound this week. Dallas wins, 24-20.
Washington +6 over NEW YORK GIANTS
New York always plays great on the road, and comes up flat at home. If they take the Redskins too lightly, they could find themselves down big early.
RGIII is making a push for rookie of the year, and I think he pulls off the upset this week and takes down their division foe, 30-29.
TAMPA BAY +1 1/2 over New Orleans
Home underdog coming off of a bye, against a really bad defensive unit, seems to good to be true.
Rookie running back Doug Martin should be able to have a field day against a Saints team that is allowing the third most rushing yards in the NFL. Give me the Bucs to cover and win outright, 35-33.
NEW ENGLAND -10 1/2 over New York Jets
Ten and a half points is a lot to lay, but I feel more confident knowing that it is the Patriots and they are at home against a bad Jets team.
This whole notion of Tim Tebow lining up in the backfield and playing running back is a joke. They already brought the circus to town, now there’s talks of him playing running back?! Typical Jets.
Pats crush the Jets this week, 40-13.
Jacksonville +6 over OAKLAND
The Raiders played the game of their season last week against the undefeated Atlanta Falcons, but to many penalties and Carson Palmer’s quarterback play was undoubtedly their downfall.
Jacksonville is 4-1 ATS in their past five games when playing Oakland. I like the Raiders to win, but I think Jacksonville covers, 20-17.
CINCINNATI +1 over Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is ranked 3rd in the NFL in passing yards against, but that should change this week with Troy Polamalu (calf) being ruled out. I can see Andy Dalton and A.J. Green hooking up a lot in Sunday night’s game.
Also out for the Steelers are, Rashard Mendenhall (Achilles) and Isaac Redman (ankle), so it’ll be up to Jonathan Dwyer and Baron Batch to carry the load in the running game.
I expect the Steelers injuries will end up costing them this one. Bengals win, 31-24.