NFL Draft History | The AFC’s Five Worst First Round Drafting Teams
Building a successful draft class, much like gauging your own inebriation, is not an exact science. Infamous NFL Draft busts like Ryan Leaf and Tony Mandarich took their “can’t-miss prospect” tags and exchanged them for sad, gray, human interest pieces on ESPN that left us all saying, “Well, it’s good to know those drugs didn’t kill him.”
Every first round prospect has the potential to sabotage their team’s season and, in some cases (Leaf), leave a permanent black mark on their respective franchise’s history. Granted, selections like Leaf, Mandarich, and JaMarcus Russell are in a league of their own, but these five teams have come close to perfecting the science of terrible first round drafting.
So let’s all hang our heads and exasperatedly sigh for the five worst first-round drafting teams in the AFC.
*This article only examines the five, most recent first-round selections from each team. Draft grades are self-generated on a scale of 1 to 100, with 100 being awesome . . . most of these players won’t have to worry about that part.
5. NEW YORK JETS
2011 – Muhammad Wilkerson (DE/Temple)
Wilkerson wasn’t terrible, recording 49 combined tackles and 3 sacks in his rookie campaign. But as a starting defensive end in a division that could possibly have Tom Brady and Peyton Manning in it next year, Wilkerson will have to step his game up. Grade: 59
2010 – Kyle Wilson (CB/Boise State)
Last season, Wilson nearly doubled his tackle totals from his rookie year (21 to 41), but he has only recorded 2 INTs and 11 defended passes in two seasons and is receiving stiff competition from eight-year veteran, Donald Strickland, at nickel corner. 49
2009 – Mark Sanchez (QB/USC)
Marky-Mark recorded career-highs in completion percentage (56.7), passing TDs (26) and passing yards (3,474) last year, and the Jets rewarded him with a three-year, $40.5 million dollar extension. They did that despite the fact that he averages 9.7 fumbles a season and doesn’t command any respect from his team despite being under center in New York for three years and leading them to two AFC Championship games. 60
2008 – Dustin Keller (TE/Purdue)
Easily, the Jets’ best first round selection of the last five. In 2011, Keller recorded career-highs in receptions (65) and receiving yards (815) while tying his career-best in TDs (5). Plus, he has been a reliable target for the unreliable Sanchez. 80
2008: Vernon Gholston (DE/Ohio State)
Oh, Vernon, how should I put this? In your first four seasons, you’ve sacked the QB as many times as I have. Before Gholston, the Jets drafted Darrelle Revis (2007), D’Brickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold (2006). A Gholston curse, perhaps? Either way, I’m pretty sure you’re draft grade shouldn’t be your overall draft selection minus four. 2
Average First Round Selection Grade: 50
4. BUFFALO BILLS
2011: Marcell Dareus (DT/Alabama)
5.5 sacks and a Defensive Rookie of the Year nod. Dareus wasn’t completely dominant, but 2011 was a promising start for the big guy. 85
2010: C.J. Spiller (RB/Clemson)
My first inclination is to give Spiller a lower grade, but he finally eclipsed 100 carries last year (107) and recorded a nice 5.2 yards-per-carry average. He also tacked on 4 TDs. This might have been because Fred Jackson beat up defensive front-sevens in front of Spiller all year long, but I am going to keep my eye on the speedster. 65
2009: Eric Wood (C/Louisville)
Despite his size, Eric Wood doesn’t look tough. He looks like the dopey kid from Bad Santa plus 20 years. Certainly, Wood was an unexpected first round selection but he has provided some youth and consistency for Buffalo’s offensive line. Last year, he started in a career-low 9 games so he needs a strong outing in 2012. 57
2009: Aaron Maybin (DE/Penn State)
Maybin, like Vernon Gholston, carried the draft bust moniker but, unlike Gholston, resurrected his career in New York. While in Buffalo, Maybin recorded 24 tackles and no sacks. This last season with Gang Green, Maybin recorded 6 sacks. Unfortunately, I’m judging upstate Maybin, not Joisey-Maybin. 5
2008: Leodis McKelvin (CB/Troy)
Only started in six games last year and averages a measly 1.25 INTs a season, but he has averaged 9.5 defended passes in his last two seasons. I like corners that can cover. I’m strange like that. 35
Average First Round Selection Grade: 49.4
3. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
2011: Anthony Castonzo (OL/Boston College)
Started 12 games in 2011 and could be a nice, young building block for a strong line to protect the incoming Stanford wunderkind. 70
2010: Jerry Hughes (DE/TCU)
In two seasons, Hughes has 21 combined tackles and one sack. With Robert Mathis resigned but Dwight Freeney on the trading block, Hughes could make a name for himself, but if his prior stats are any indication, there could be a huge production drop-off if Freeney skips town. 17
2009: Donald Brown (RB/UConn)
Brown recorded career-highs in rushing yards (648) and yards-per-carry (4.8). With Joseph Addai gone, Brown could shine, but he shouldn’t sleep on Delone Carter because he is no slouch. 52
2008: Anthony Gonzalez (WR/Ohio State)
This is how you know your career is fishtailing. First two seasons: 1,240 receiving yards and 7 TDs. Next three: 67 yards. 36
2007: Joseph Addai (RB/LSU)
Addai averaged 1,076.5 rushing yards in his first two seasons, but he has always been overrated. He doesn’t run with power and is atrocious between the tackles. It all seems to be catching up with him as he recorded his second-lowest number of carries (118) in 2011 and has only found the endzone five times in the last two seasons. Good cut by the Colts. 45
Average First Round Selection Grade: 44
2. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
2011: Blaine Gabbert (QB/Missouri)
It was hard to miss in the Top 10 of the 2011 Draft with names like Cam Newton, Von Miller, Patrick Peterson, Aldon Smith, and Julio Jones, but God bless the Jaguars, they found a way. Gabbert ended the season with a 50.8% completion percentage, averaging 5.4 yards per completion. 20
2010: Tyson Alualu (DT/California)
Roger Goodell: “With the tenth pick in the 2010 NFL Draft, the Jacksonville Jaguars select Tyson Alualu.” Say it with me, “WHO?” Yeah, turns out we were only partial right. Good news, he ranked second amongst Jaguar defensive linemen in sacks, trailing only Jeremy Mincey. The bad news is that total was only three. Tyson’s timetable is shortening. 44
2009: Eugene Monroe (OL/Virginia)
Monroe has been a consistent presence at tackle, starting 42 of his 48 games. But in 2011, he allowed 6.5 of the 38 sacks surrendered by the porous Jags line, leading the team. 55
2008: Derrick Harvey (DE/Florida)
Harvey is becoming a bit of an NFL journeyman, signing with Denver in 2011. In three seasons, he has been mediocre, averaging 30.7 tackles and 2.7 sacks. Nothing to write home about. 25
2007: Reggie Nelson (S/Florida)
Reggie has bookended his career nicely. In his first and most recent season, he averaged 74 tackles, 11.5 passes defended and 4.5 INTs. During the three seasons in between, his numbers dip to 59.3 tackles, 5.3 passes defended and 1.3 INTs. I’m split on Nelson, but he did show he could get the job done for multiple teams so I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt, but with a wary eye. 74
Average First Round Selection Grade: 43.6
1. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS:
Go, Chargers! Go!
2011: Corey Liuget (DE/Illinois)
Only 19 combined tackles and one sack in his rookie season. There’s still time for Corey, but you hope for more production than that. 42
2010: Ryan Mathews (RB/Fresno State)
Last year, Mathews improved in every category that counts: rushing yards (1,091), carries (222), and yards-per-carry (4.9). Mathews has a tall order filling the shoes of LT and he’s not there yet, but he’s on his way. 83
2009: Larry English (LB/Northern Illinois)
English’s combined tackle totals have decreased by at least 50% in every successive season since 2009.
2009-2010: 36 to 17 combined tackles (53% decrease)
2010-2011: 17 to 7 (59% decrease)
To top that off, he only averages 2.3 sacks a season since 2009. I originally liked the English pick. I have since recanted. 30
2008: Antoine Cason (CB/Arizona)
Cason averaged 11 passes defended and 2.5 INTs in his first four seasons so his coverage is sound, but he has been eclipsed by Clemson rookie, Marcus Gilchrist on the San Diego depth chart. 54
2007: Craig Davis (WR/LSU)
Two receiving touchdowns in five years. Now with Bills. Whatever. 5
Average First Round Selection Grade: 42.8
Later on this week, I will be profiling the worst first-round drafting teams in the NFC and comparing the average grades of each conference.
Before I go though, sing it with me:
“San Di-e-go! Su-per Char-gers!”
Well done!
Interesting list. However, statistically judging players like Corey Liuget, Muhammed Wilkerson, and Tyson Alualu is pointless. Liuget and Wilkerson are 34 DE's, and judging statistics for them, especially as rookies who didn't start every game, is unfair. Not to mention, you say Reggie Nelson grades out fairly because he has several tackles, a few PBU's and a couple INT's… well, I don't even know what to say to that. He's still a very mediocre player at best, and clearly not worth a first rounder. This was a good effort, however.
74 is a mediocre grade, right? I gave Nelson credit for not sleeping further into mediocrity after three, below-average seasons. I think he's ballhawking instincts are better than someone like Laron Landry who may get payed this offseason, but didn't in any way live up to his Top 10 billing, while a guy like Nelson went in the middle rounds. As far as judging defensive ends and pass rushers based on their first year, I can't buy that with guys like Aldon Smith racking up 14.0 sacks in his rookie season despite never starting a single game. Either way, I appreciate your input. I was hoping someone would fan the flames a bit. Check back for the NFC list and let me know what you think, Keet.
Wow, so many typos there. I kind of rushed that response. Let me correct them in order: 1.) *slipping (sleeping) 2.)*his (he's) 3.) Nelson went in the middle of the 1st (around 21st overall, I think) Cool, pardon my 4 am spell-checking.
Well, when I see you give a 42 to Corey Liuget, and a 74 to Nelson, I just get confused. I just assumed that 74 was pretty high, rather than that 42 was super low. The problem with this is differentiating between these guys as NFL players, and as first round picks. Nelson is an NFL caliber safety that is a fringe starter and good enough to start on likely half of the teams in the NFL. But as a first round pick, I think Nelson is absolute trash. I think that's where my beef is. My other beef is obviously rating players within their first 2-3 seasons, especially 3-4 DL like Liuget and Wilkerson. It's a nice list and a great piece. I just think it's dependent on how you read the list, whether it's as NFL players, or as first round picks.